The 40th Anniversary of IRONMAN is setting up to be an epic showdown for the pro field at the world championship. If the IRONMAN 70.3 World Championship was any indication of the level of athleticism, we may be in store for more record-setting performances for both the men's and women's race this year.
Make Your Predictions Sweepstakes
Congratulations to Neal Oseland, the winner of our Make Your Predictions Sweepstakes! Neal won a Premium Athlete Subscription for a full year and says he'll be using Best Bike Split as he plans, trains and races IRONMAN 70.3 St. George and IRONMAN Chattanooga next year.
| Pro Women | Avg. Prediction | BBS Prediction | Actual Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lauren Brandon | 04:55:00 | 04:55:33 | DNF |
| Mirinda Carfrae | 04:56:23 | 04:57:28 | 04:46:05 |
| Lucy Charles | 04:51:49 | 04:41:23 | 04:38:11 |
| Anne Haug | 04:54:35 | 04:46:01 | 04:47:45 |
| Daniela Ryf | 04:48:31 | 04:27:43 | 04:26:07 |
Best Bike Split's Predictions
Here are our estimated TSS, Power, Speed and bike splits for a few selected pro athletes. These are based on past performances, weather conditions and publicly available data coupled with our advanced power modeling algorithms.
Weather Forecast
Last year's race featured pristine weather conditions. There was a slight overcast and the strong prevailing winds never materialized for the pro race. This led to the top three bike splits all shattering Normann Stadler's long held record from 2006. We don't expect this year to be as conducive to record bike splits (which will actually please the stronger cyclists). Check back for updates on the weather as race day approaches.
Race Analysis
Ryf has again dominated this year and will be looking to add to her legacy as arguably one of the greatest endurance athletes of all time. We have seen that anything can happen in Kona, and if Ryf should falter or have an off day, Lucy Charles, Anne Haug, and a host of others all have a legitimate chance to take the top spot. Carfrae should also never be overlooked as a defending champion and one of the all time great runners in the sport across both women and men, especially in the heat and humidity.
On the men's side, the injury to Jan Frodeno has opened the door with no clear favorite to take his place. Lionel Sanders will be eyeing the top spot after a close second last year, Patrick Lange will hope to run down the field again, and Javier Gomez might be the best bet to break the recent German stranglehold at the top of the podium after a hard fought third at the 70.3 World Championship.
Major tactics will be on display with more über bikers in the field (Starkey, Wurf, Sanders, Kienle, Amberger, etc.) and what is sure to be less than the ideal wind conditions experienced during last year's record breaking bike day.
Strong cyclists will try to put major time gaps into Lange, Gomez, McNamee and Hanson to prevent a repeat of last year's come-from-behind win. 2018, maybe more than any other year, sets up to be a showdown between the elite cyclists and fastest runners in the sport, which could be great for Sebastian Kienle and Lionel Sanders. We are sure they are hoping for more typical Kona winds this year.
Kona Demo Race Plan
Take a look at and try out the full Kona Best Bike Split model for yourself. The demo race plan allows you to change the power, weight and approximate aerodynamic drag to match your own stats. You can see what power you would need for a specific time or what type of time you could achieve with your power by checking out the Kona demo race plan.
