The 2024 Tour de France provided a great testing ground for our advanced predictive models, which are rooted in the dynamics of the peloton and tailored to various stage types. This post TdF analysis highlights our methodology and key findings, showcasing how our predictions compared to actual race outcomes. Through detailed examination of performance across different stage types, we offer insights into the factors driving elite cycling performance and the potential applications of our models for future race strategies.
Our approach to modeling the Tour is grounded in the dynamics of the peloton. The peloton's collective power and aerodynamic efficiency play a crucial role in our predictions. By analyzing typical pull power and understanding the impact of drafting, we create a baseline that reflects the average conditions of the race.
For the mountainous stages, we elevate our model to mirror the extraordinary efforts of the top climbers, capturing the essence of what it takes to lead in these segments.
In time trials, precision is key. Our models are designed to predict what it takes to reach the podium, focusing on optimal pacing strategies and power outputs that align with elite performance standards. While we refrain from using specific rider values due to our partnerships, our generalized approach still delivers highly competitive predictions.
Our models were put to the test across various stages of the Tour de France, revealing intriguing insights into our predictive capabilities. Here's a breakdown of how our models performed across different stage types and what we learned along the way.
Stage | Type | Date | Modeled Time | Winning Time | Median Time | Diff to Winning | Diff to Median |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Hilly | 06/29/2024 | 5:18:19 | 5:07:22 | 5:15:01 | -0:10:57 | -0:03:18 |
2 | Hilly | 06/30/2024 | 4:58:29 | 4:43:42 | 4:52:35 | -0:14:47 | -0:05:54 |
3 | Flat | 07/01/2024 | 5:18:46 | 5:26:48 | 5:27:35 | 0:08:02 | 0:08:49 |
4 | Mountain | 07/02/2024 | 3:49:12 | 3:46:38 | 4:07:34 | -0:02:34 | 0:18:22 |
5 | Flat | 07/03/2024 | 4:00:36 | 4:08:46 | 4:08:47 | 0:08:10 | 0:08:11 |
6 | Flat | 07/04/2024 | 3:26:49 | 3:31:55 | 3:35:38 | 0:05:06 | 0:08:49 |
7 | Time Trial | 07/05/2024 | 0:29:20 | 0:28:52 | 0:32:43 | -0:00:28 | 0:03:51 |
8 | Hilly | 07/06/2024 | 4:04:34 | 4:04:50 | 4:04:50 | 0:00:16 | 0:00:16 |
9 | Hilly | 07/07/2024 | 4:33:15 | 4:19:43 | 4:31:25 | -0:13:32 | -0:01:50 |
10 | Flat | 07/09/2024 | 4:07:50 | 4:20:06 | 4:20:06 | 0:12:16 | 0:12:16 |
11 | Mountain | 07/10/2024 | 5:15:01 | 4:58:00 | 5:27:23 | -0:17:01 | 0:29:23 |
12 | Hilly | 07/11/2024 | 4:32:08 | 4:17:15 | 4:18:21 | -0:14:53 | -0:13:47 |
13 | Hilly | 07/12/2024 | 3:32:06 | 3:23:09 | 3:25:38 | -0:08:57 | -0:06:28 |
14 | Mountain | 07/13/2024 | 4:11:46 | 4:01:51 | 4:32:43 | -0:09:55 | 0:30:52 |
15 | Mountain | 07/14/2024 | 5:15:01 | 5:13:55 | 5:54:55 | -0:01:06 | 0:41:00 |
16 | Flat | 07/16/2024 | 4:04:33 | 4:11:27 | 4:11:27 | 0:06:54 | 0:06:54 |
17 | Mountain | 07/17/2024 | 4:19:34 | 4:06:13 | 4:23:43 | -0:13:21 | 0:04:09 |
18 | Hilly | 07/18/2024 | 4:10:07 | 4:10:20 | 4:24:00 | 0:00:13 | 0:13:40 |
19 | Mountain | 07/19/2024 | 4:01:17 | 4:04:03 | 4:44:37 | 0:02:46 | 0:43:20 |
20 | Mountain | 07/20/2024 | 3:58:56 | 4:04:22 | 4:33:16 | 0:05:26 | 0:34:20 |
21 | Time Trial | 07/21/2024 | 3:58:56 | 4:04:22 | 4:33:16 | 0:05:26 | 0:43:20 |
Total | 79:50:39 | 77:51:52 | 82:24:57 | -1:58:47 | 2:34:18 |
Overall, Pogacar was 2.54% faster than our modeled time, and the Median Total time was 3.15% slower than our model time.
The analysis of our model's performance across the stages revealed several key trends:
Our analysis also uncovered how median predictions varied throughout the Tour and across different stage types:
Value: 9.23 minutes
Interpretation:
Value: 7.51 minutes
Interpretation:
Value: 3.04%
Interpretation:
Value: 0.98
Interpretation:
Our BBS Tour de France modeling showcases the power of advanced predictive analytics in cycling. By focusing on the typical pull power, aerodynamics of group riding, and elite efforts on key climbs, we deliver predictions that are consistently closer to the winning times. While the median predictions varied, our models demonstrated robust performance across all stage types, offering valuable insights into the dynamics of the world's most prestigious cycling race. These types of predictions are, of course, a 10000 ft high-level starting point for deeper Tour-Level race analytics. By using this type of modeling and our Time Analysis tools, coaches and athletes can determine season goals, refine power targets, and even plan specific course attack strategies!
Below, we see a deep-level analysis of the last 4.5 km of Stage 14 where Pogacar accelerates away from Vingegaard to cement his lead on the way to his 3rd Tour de France victory. As you can see in the Time Analysis tool, by Pogacar pushing a higher power and accelerating at this point on the course, his rivals have minimal time to react because if they try to pull back time a kilometer later by pushing higher power, they will not gain nearly as much time per distance due to the course. In contrast, Pogacar can conserve a bit of energy from 149 km to 150 km in order to make another hard effort, eliminating any possibility of being reeled in and ensuring the stage win.
In Stage 14 Pogacar attacked right around 147 km into the race and according to our Time Analysis tool and the Time Delta/Distance chart, this is right where he gains the most time per distance.
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