The penultimate stage is a 22.5 km Time Trial through Marseille. In contrast to Stage 1 the weather should be much better for the riders in this race against the clock. The course has several big turns, but it is not overly technical. The majority of the stage is flat along along the coast with a one significant but short 7-9% climb at the 14.5 km mark. This climb is around a km in length and should take around 2:15 for the favorites.
| Stage Type | |
|---|---|
| Stage Distance | 22.43 km |
| Estimated Time | 00:27:49 |
| Avg. Peloton Speed | 48.36 km/h |
| Avg. Pulling Power | 411.30 watts |
| Avg. Pulling Yaw | 4.09 ° |
The current forecasted conditions should be clear with temperatures hovering around 27 Celsius or 80 Fahrenheit. The wind forecast favors the later GC riders with a steady south wind that gets progressively lighter throughout the day. On the route up the coast this wind would be a cross tail but a head wind for part of the trip back to the finish in the Orange Stade velodrome.
Barring a mechanical, Froome should not have a problem defending the Yellow Jersey. On paper he is a stronger pure TT rider than the remaining GC contenders. Uran has shown good TT form in the past, however the course would need more climbing to really suit his strengths. Even with the 1 km climb to the Notre Dame de la Garde Basilica, this course really suits the specialists. The interesting conditions on the course will mean that the higher tail wind section for the early riders could be more beneficial than the the lower head wind sections for the later GC riders as the course is more sheltered in the head wind sections than the tail. Froome has not yet won a stage and that little extra motivation, plus knowing the time targets and the short climb could make it a perfect combination for the stage win before the podium ride to Paris.
We expect winning times to be a bit under 28 minutes so Froome will need to average near 6.2 watts/kg to challenge the bigger power riders. After 3 weeks of racing anything can happen, but if Froome races to his ability he will keep the Yellow and be in contention for the stage win.
Analysis was performed by modeling the peloton as a single rider using front of the pack drag characteristics and pulling power targets. Take a look at the entire race plan that was used for this analysis, which includes additional features, metrics and downloadable files.
Stage 20 Race Plan: https://www.bestbikesplit.com/client/73231