The first day in the alps did not disappoint with a long range Contador attack and a change up in the GC with Uran moving to 2nd and Aru dropping to 4th. Froome never seemed under major pressure though some attacks did come up the Col du Galibier. Stage 18 looks to be another great day where pressure will again come from the GC group. Starting in Briançon the course heads south with a overall negative gradient before hitting the Cat 3 Côte des Demoiselles Coiffées. From there the course turns east for the intermediate sprint point before heading back north to face the Cat 1 Col de Vars followed almost immediately by the finish climb up the Col d'Izoard which averages 7.3% over 14.1 km.
| Stage Type | |
|---|---|
| Stage Distance | 177.98 km |
| Estimated Time | 04:46:01 |
| Avg. Peloton Speed | 37.33 km/h |
| Avg. Pulling Power | 339.35 watts |
| Avg. Pulling Yaw | 5.13 ° |
The final mountain stage features a mountain top finish and with Uran and Bardet both within 27 seconds of Froome and the Yellow Jersey, expect multiple attacks on the final Col d'Izoard. Both riders will hope to put Froome on the ropes and try to drop his main lieutenant in Landa before the decisive final 4 km of the climb where the gradients will often be over 10%. Uran is probably a better time trialist than Bardet, but Froome has always shown to be very strong against the clock. Realistically Uran needs a bit of a lead on Froome to contend the Jersey on the short Stage 20 time trial. Froome looked strong on Stage 17 and to hope to get those type of time gaps it will take a major effort over 10 minutes for Uran to gain the needed time. On those gradients if Froome pushes 6.25 watts/kg Uran would have to be close to 6.65 to pull back the 27 sec difference. Ultimately the best hope for Uran and Bardet is to attack early and often and hope they can find something in the tank to put some significant time into Froome in the final push to the finish.
Analysis was performed by modeling the peloton as a single rider using front of the pack drag characteristics and pulling power targets. Take a look at the entire race plan that was used for this analysis, which includes additional features, metrics and downloadable files.
Stage 18 Race Plan: https://www.bestbikesplit.com/client/73047