The final day in the Alps is also the last place for any GC contenders to make moves before heading into the finish in Paris. Stage 20 is a shorter but intense stage at only 146.5 km it features four categorized climbs. Starting out in Megève, riders will head southwest through rolling terrain till the course turns north at Flumet. From there riders will face the Category 2 Col des Aravis before the easier of the two category 1 climbs, the Col de la Colombière which features an average grade of 5.8% for 11.7 km. After a long descent into Marignier, the riders will turn east and start the 13.9 km, 7.1% climb up Col de la Ramaz. The final test for climbers and GC riders will be the Hors Categorie Col de Joux Plane with an average grade of 8.5% for 11.6 km. Cresting over the top, there is a steep descent into the finish in Morzine-Avoriaz, not unlike stage 8 where Froome attacked into Bagnères-de-Luchon.
| Stage Type | |
|---|---|
| Stage Distance | 146.49 km |
| Estimated Time | 04:06:21 |
| Avg. Peloton Speed | 35.68 km/h |
| Avg. Pulling Power | 339.44 watts |
| Avg. Pulling Yaw | 3.11 ° |
Weather will be similar to Stage 19 so riders should be prepared for potentially wet roads that caused havoc on today's stage. The descents could be treacherous if the rain comes through. The wind will remain low and will not have a significant impact and the temperatures will also be lower in the upper teens and lower 20s. The real impact will be the potential rain throughout the day.
The French got their first win in this year's tour in Stage 19 and a great show of climbing and bike handling from Romain Bardet who also moved up to 2nd in the GC. These skills will be imperative in Stage 20 as well so it could be another great day for the Frenchman if he has anything left in the tank. The best area on stage 20 to try to put in gains for a break or a rider trying to go off the front will come on the steep sections of the 2nd category 1 climb up the Col de la Ramaz. It's doubtful any of the GC groups would let someone with podium aspirations go, so it's likely any major moves will have to wait for the final HC climb on Col de Joux Plane. If the rain comes through, the final descent into Morzine-Avoriaz will favor the strong bike handlers. Riders with any gap over the top of the final climb will be unlikely to be caught if they can handle the descent to the finish. And if Bardet can ride like Stage 19 he will solidify his 2nd position overall going into Paris.
Analysis was performed by modeling the peloton as a single rider using front of the pack drag characteristics and pulling power targets. Take a look at the entire race plan that was used for this analysis, which includes additional features, metrics and downloadable files.
Stage 20 Race Plan: https://www.bestbikesplit.com/client/45164