Lacapelle-Marival to Rocamadour

Stage 20 / Saturday, July 23rd

The final day before the finish in Paris is a difficult 40.7 km Individual Time Trial. While there will likely be no movement at the top of the GC podium, there could be some shuffling in the Top 10, and the big engines will be happy to have a final shot at a stage race. The stage starts in the Medieval town of Lacapelle-Marival for the first time and travels northwest for 10 km to the village of Aynac. The course then turns due west to the last intermediate checkpoint in Couzou. Most of the course features rolling hills perfect for true specialists against the clock, but as the course heads north at Couzou, there are two steeper climbs to the finish. The first is the Côte de Magès, which at 1.6 km features an average gradient of 4.7%. The last 2 km of the stage features a final test up the Côte de l'Hospitalet which averages a punishing 7.8% over 1.5 km before flatting out for the last 300 meters to the finish.

Weather Forecast

Current forecasts call for more hot weather and a predominant headwind for the entire stage. Aerodynamics always play a major factor in time trials, but with a headwind, it is even more imperative to minimize drag. To put it in perspective, a very aerodynamic rider might have a Coefficient of Drag x Area (CdA) of .2 to .22. Conversely, an average age group athlete is often closer to .26 or higher. Analyzing a 50 minute ride on this stage shows the difference between these two CdA numbers equates to a power of 350 watts for the more aerodynamic rider and over 400 watts for the less aero position. Riders looking for the stage win will have their TT position dialed and their pacing plan detailed for each section of the course.

Stage Analysis

There will be little to no GC movement on the day in terms of the podium, but there could be some changes in the minor placings in the top 10. That said, Jonas Vingegaard has a good shot of winning the stage in Yellow if he can limit losses to the TT specialists leading into the steeper climbs of the final few kilometers. After 19 stages of racing, we don't expect riders to be at maximum power output, so proper pacing with the headwind and late climbs is crucial. Looking at the BBS power profile, the first 30 km should be ridden very steady with slight power fluctuations on the rolling hill. Once the course starts to descend after the village of Couzou, riders will have a short respite where power can dip a bit before the final climbs. Over these climbs, expect riders to be on the limit for 2:30 and 3 minutes, respectively. Depending on fatigue, we expect the big GC names Jonas Vingegaard, Tadej Pogačar, and Geraint Thomas to finish high on the leader board for the stage, but the win could come down to a battle between the TT specialist and current TT World Champion Filippo Ganna and the likely Green Jersey, Wout Van Aert. With the wind conditions and climbs, expect a winning time at sub 46 minute, which is over 50 km/hour for the 40.7 km course. See how you would stack up on the stage using our Time Analysis tool and sliders to adjust the power, drag, and weight.