As part of our model verification process we decided to test the model’s predicted best possible time against yellow jersey rider Chris Froome heading into the Tour de France’s Individual time trial. Before the 11th Stage we did a model run to determine Chris Froome’s optimal finishing time. The model correctly predicted that given the wind conditions he would be ahead of Tony Martin’s time at the first two checkpoints, and that he would fade over the last section due to the strong head wind component of the cross wind heading to the finish. The model predicted that there was almost no way for him to beat Tony’s time given his estimated power numbers from previous races.
We were very excited to see that Chris's time came in less than 9 seconds from our model's prediction.
Ryan Cooper
We also did some post race analysis on some of the other riders (drag coefficients were estimated using Heil DP. method and power targets were estimated based on previous race effort comparisons to known power data).
| Rider | Model Estimate | Actual Time |
|---|---|---|
| Chris Froome | 36 min 32 sec | 36 min 41 sec |
| Alberto Contador | 38 min 41 sec | 38 min 44 sec |
| Richie Porte | 37 min 33 sec | 37 min 50 sec |
| Tony Martin | 36 min 18 sec | 36 min 29 sec |
| Cadel Evans | 38 min 41 sec | 38 min 59 sec |
| Rider | Model Estimate | Actual Time |
|---|---|---|
| Wiggins (2012) | 36 min 1 sec | NA |
| Cancellara | 36 min 32 sec | NA |
| Armstrong (2012) | 37 min 24 sec | NA |