Carcassonne to Foix

Stage 16 / Tuesday, July 19th

While riders enjoy the second rest day at the tour on Monday, there will be no respite from the heat or climbing when Stage 16 kicks off 3 straight days in the Pyrénées. The 178.5km Stage 16 starts in Carcassonne, traveling west to the day's first two categorized climbs in the Cat 4 Côte de Saint-Hilaire and the Cat 3 Col de l'Espinas. The real test for the peloton and remaining riders will come as the course turns north at 110 km with two successive Cat 1 climbs. The first is the 11.4 km Port de Lers. While averaging over 7% grade, the climb features steeper sections near the beginning of the climb of over 10% and 2.5 km from the summit at 9%. The course then descends over 17 km to Massat, where the second Cat 1 Mur de Péguère begins. The Mur de Péguère starts out relatively calm with grades around 5.5%, but the final 3.5 km are truly brutal with sustained grades of more than 12% and sections at over 18%. The final 27 km descent heads back east to the stage finish in Foix.

Weather Forecast

Temperatures at the tour show no signs of dropping, with forecasts in the upper 30s celsius. The stage should feature a favorable wind out of the east early, but as the course turns back to the east, the final descent will be a headwind. We have seen several casualties due to the heat and conditions. Riders that are dropped early will struggle to meet the time limits. Michael Mørkøv suffered in the extreme heat and missed the time cutoff after riding 200 km solo on Stage 15.

Stage Analysis

Without a mountain top finish, we expect a large break-a-way to establish early on the first two smaller climbs of the day. If the weather holds, the early tailwind will help keep the break clear all the way to the first major climb up Port de Lers. Expect multiple breaks over the back-to-back mountain passes, but major moves for the stage win could come in the final sections of the 18% grades of the Mur de Péguère. That said, Tom Pidcock (Ineos Grenadiers) has shown how much time can be pulled back with his outstanding display of descending on Stage 12. The major GC battles will likely come on Wednesday's Stage 17. Still, Jonas Vingegaard's (Jumbo-Visma) crash on Stage 15 and the subsequent withdrawal of his two teammates, Steven Kruijswijk and Primož Roglič, will undoubtedly play into the last week of the tour. Tadej Pogačar has vowed to continue to attack, and we will see how that plays out on the Mur de Péguère and the remaining days in the Pyrénées.